Project Syndicate2016.2.10---George Soros :Putin is No Ally Against ISIS

Project Syndicate2016.2.10---George Soros :Putin is No Ally Against ISIS
(摘要)George Soros :2017年俄羅斯普京政權或因債務到期及政局動盪面臨破產，故相信普京避免政權崩潰的最有效手段，就是讓歐盟提早崩潰，那樣一來，俄羅斯可以從歐洲分裂中坐收漁利。
(摘要)George Soros :目前俄羅斯財政赤字相等於其國內生產總值(GDP)的7%，政府正致力降至3%以打擊通脹問題，惟政府的社保基金亦處於「缺錢」的狀況，並需要與政府基建基金合併以作補充,
(摘要)George Soros :歐盟自2008年金融海嘯及一系列對希臘的援助方案以來，都是經歷不同困難，惟目前同一時間爆發多項問題，恐怕歐盟將無力應付以致解體，就如同德國總理默克爾所述，「難民危機或有力摧毀歐盟」

Putin is No Ally Against ISIS
MUNICH – The leaders of the United States and the European Union are making a grievous error in thinking that President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is a potential ally in the fight against the Islamic State. The evidence contradicts them. Putin’s current aim is to foster the EU’s disintegration, and the best way to do so is to flood the EU with Syrian refugees.
Russian planes have been bombing the civilian population in southern Syria forcing them to flee to Jordan and Lebanon. There are now 20,000 Syrian refugees camped out in the desert awaiting admission to Jordan. A smaller number are waiting to enter Lebanon. Both groups are growing.
Russia has also launched a large-scale air attack against civilians in northern Syria. This was followed by a ground assault by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army against Aleppo, a city that used to have 2 million inhabitants. The barrel bombs caused 70,000 civilians to flee to Turkey; the ground offensive could uproot many more. The families on the move may not stop in Turkey. German Chancellor Angela Merkel flew to Ankara on February 9 to make last-minute arrangements with the Turkish government to induce the refugees already in Turkey to prolong their stay there. She offered to airlift 200,000-300,000 Syrian refugees annually directly to Europe on the condition that Turkey prevent them from going to Greece and will accept them back if they do so.
Putin is a gifted tactician, but not a strategic thinker. There is no reason to believe that he intervened in Syria in order to aggravate the European refugee crisis. Indeed, his intervention was a strategic blunder, because it embroiled him in a conflict with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that has hurt the interests of both. But once Putin saw the opportunity to hasten the EU’s disintegration, he seized it. He has obfuscated his actions by talking of cooperating against a common enemy, ISIS. He has followed a similar approach in Ukraine, signing the Minsk Agreement but failing to carry out its provisions.
It is hard to understand why the leaders of both the US and the EU take Putin at his word rather than judging him by his behavior. The only explanation I can find is that democratic politicians seek to reassure their publics by painting a more favorable picture than reality justifies. The fact is that Putin’s Russia and the EU are engaged in a race against time: The question is which one will collapse first.
The Putin regime faces bankruptcy in 2017, when a large part of its foreign debt matures, and political turmoil may erupt sooner than that. Putin’s popularity, which remains high, rests on a social compact requiring the government to deliver financial stability and a slowly but steadily rising standard of living. Western sanctions, coupled with the sharp decline in the price of oil, will force the regime to fail on both counts.
Russia’s budget deficit is running at 7% of GDP, and the government will have to cut it to 3% in order to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control. Russia’s social security fund is running out of money and has to be merged with the government’s infrastructure fund in order to be replenished. These and other developments will have a negative effect on living standards and opinions of the electorate before the parliamentary election in the fall. The most effective way that Putin’s regime can avoid collapse is by causing the EU to collapse sooner. An EU that is coming apart at the seams will not be able to maintain the sanctions it imposed on Russia following its incursion into Ukraine. On the contrary, Putin will be able to gain considerable economic benefits from dividing Europe and exploiting the connections with commercial interests and anti-European parties that he has carefully cultivated. As matters stand, the EU is set to disintegrate. Ever since the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent rescue packages for Greece, the EU has learned how to muddle through one crisis after another. But today it is confronted by five or six crises at the same time, which may prove to be too much. As Merkel correctly foresaw, the migration crisis has the potential to destroy the EU.
When a state or association of states is in mortal danger, it is better for its leaders to confront harsh reality than to ignore it. The race for survival pits the EU against Putin’s Russia. ISIS poses a threat to both, but it should not be over-estimated. Attacks mounted by jihadi terrorists, however terrifying, do not compare with the threat emanating from Russia.
ISIS (and Al Qaeda before it) has recognized the Achilles’ heel of Western civilization – the fear of death – and learned how to exploit it. By arousing latent Islamophobia in the West and inducing both publics and governments to treat Muslims with suspicion, they hope to convince young Muslims that there is no alternative to terrorism. Once this strategy is understood, there is a simple antidote: Refuse to behave the way your enemies want you to. The threat emanating from Putin’s Russia will be difficult to counter. Failure to recognize it will make the task even more difficult.


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Project Syndicate2016.2.10---George Soros :普京不反对盟友ISIS
慕尼黑 - 美国和欧盟的领导人正在思考一个严重的错误，在普京总统的俄罗斯是反对伊斯兰国斗争的潜在盟友。该证据否定他们。普京此次目的是促进欧盟的解体，而这样做的最好办法是叙利亚难民涌入欧盟。
俄罗斯飞机已经轰炸平民在叙利亚南部迫使他们逃往约旦和黎巴嫩。现在有20000沙漠等候入住约旦驻扎叙利亚难民。数字越小，正在等待进入黎巴嫩。这两个群体越来越多。
俄罗斯还推出了叙利亚北部针对平民的大规模空袭。其次叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的反对阿勒颇，即使用有2个百万人口城市军队地面攻击。桶炸弹造成70000平民逃离土耳其;地面进攻可能铲除等等。
上举的家属不得在土耳其停止。德国总理默克尔飞抵安卡拉2月9日进行最后一分钟的安排与土耳其政府已经促使难民在土耳其有延长他们的住宿。她提出每年直接空运200,000-300,000叙利亚难民欧洲，土耳其阻止他们去希腊，并接受他们回来，如果他们这样做的条件。 普京是一个天才的战术，而不是战略思想家。没有理由相信他在叙利亚进行干预，以加重欧洲的难民危机。事实上，他的干预是一个战略错误，因为它卷入了他在伤害了双方的利益与土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安冲突。
但是，一旦普京看到了机会，加快欧盟的解体，他抓住了它。他已经被对付共同的敌人，ISIS合作的谈话混淆他的行动。他随后在乌克兰类似的办法，在签订协议明斯克，但未能履行其规定。
这是很难理解为什么美国和欧盟领导人采取普京在他的词，而不是他的行为对他的判断。我能找到的唯一解释是，民主的政治家寻求绘画比现实，不问更有利的图片安抚他们的公众。事实上，普京的俄罗斯和欧盟正在从事一个与时间赛跑：现在的问题是哪一个会先崩溃。
普京政权面临破产在2017年，当其外债的很大一部分的成熟，政治动荡可能爆发比更早。普京的受欢迎程度，这仍居高不下，停留在要求政府提供财政稳定和生活的缓慢但稳步上升一个标准的社会契约。西方的制裁，再加上石油价格的急剧下降，将迫使该政权无法在这两方面。 俄罗斯的预算赤字运行在GDP的7％，而政府将不得不削减到3％，以防止通货膨胀失控。俄罗斯的社会保障基金的钱用完了，并已与政府的基础设施建设基金，以补充被合并。这些和其他发展将对在秋季议会选举之前生活水平和选民的意见产生负面影响。
普京政权能够避免崩溃的最有效的方法是通过使欧盟的崩溃越快。即未来除了在接缝处的欧盟将无法维持它下面的入侵强加给乌克兰对俄罗斯的制裁。相反，普京将能够从欧洲的分裂和开发与商业利益和反欧政党，他精心培育的连接获得可观的经济效益。
由此看来，欧盟设置为瓦解。自2008年以来的金融危机和希腊后续的救市计划以来，欧盟已经学会了如何通过一个危机此起彼伏蒙混过关。但今天它是由在同一时间五六危机，这可能被证明是太多了面对。由于默克尔正确地预见到，迁移危机破坏了欧盟的潜力。
当美国的一个州或协会是致命的危险，这是更好地为中国领导人面对残酷的现实，而不是忽略它。为生存而比赛坑欧盟针对普京的俄罗斯。 ISIS构成两者的威胁，但它不应该被高估。安装由圣战恐怖袭击，但是恐怖的，不与源自俄罗斯的威胁进行比较。
ISIS（及之前的基地组织）已经认识到西方文明的致命弱点 - 对死亡的恐惧 - 并学会如何利用它。通过在西方引起潜在的伊斯兰恐惧症和诱导公众都和政府持怀疑态度对待穆斯林，他们希望说服年轻的穆斯林，有没有替代恐怖主义。一旦这一策略。据了解，有一个简单的解药：拒绝表现你的​​敌人希望你的方式。
从普京的俄罗斯发出威胁将很难对付。不承认这将使任务变得更加困难。



资料来源 :
Project Syndicate2016.2.10---George Soros :Putin is No Ally Against ISIS
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/putin-no-ally-against-isis-by-george-soros-2016-02

George Soros :George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and Chairman of the Open Society Foundations. A pioneer of the hedge-fund industry, he is the author of many books, including The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, and The Tragedy of the European Union.