2015年Byron Wien預測---Big Data

2015~2016年---Byron Wien：英國央行會不得不提高利率，以減緩樓市速度，對整個經濟產生抑製作用。倫敦的房地產熱潮主要得益於俄羅斯和中東的買家，這一點大家都知道。
-----2016年Byron Wien：希拉里·柯林頓將贏得2016年大選
-----2016年Byron Wien：法國François Hollande會重新當選
-----2015年Byron Wien：如果德國經濟開始放緩,可能導致歐洲央行大手筆放寬貨幣政策，
-----2014.7.17Byron Wien：新的工業革命=互聯網信息技術+生物技術
-----2014.4.7Byron Wien：北京正在試圖調整經濟結構，擺脫經濟增長對信貸的過度依賴。目標是將消費占GDP比重提升至45%（目前只有36%左右）。要實現這一目標，就必須讓經濟放緩。現在尚不清楚目前經濟放緩是政策產生的效果還是因為需求不足。這一點值得密切關注。
-----2013.7.29Byron Wien：我剛去了中國，情況不容樂觀

2015.1.6---Byron Wien :2015年十大預測
1. 受就业数据改善和GDP强劲增长提振，美联储最终决定上调短期利率的时间大幅早于今年年中。但这一时点将被证明是错的，因为届时美国经济增长动能已开始衰退，且短期放缓之势已确立。宽松货币政策的结束和利率的上升将导致股市迎来一段调整。长期国债收益率重新回到加息前水平，收益率曲线变得平缓。
2. 网络恐怖袭击更加难以防范。黑客入侵一家主要货币中心银行(money center bank)的个人和企业账户，美联储下令该机构在五个工作日里暂停交易，同时对其结余的准确性进行验证。多个政府部门和机构被动员起来，处理黑客引起的问题，而黑客技术比企业网络安全防护技术更加纯熟。
3. 2015年美国经济表现强劲，美股将延续去年末的涨势。房屋和资本开支刺激经济增长，以及靓丽的盈利数据，将促使标普500指数今年再涨15%，领先全球主要工业国家股指。
4. 欧洲央行最终决定通过激进地购买主权国家债券、房贷抵押债券和企业债券扩张资产负债表。尽管如此，欧洲经济仍然重陷严重衰退。德国经济尤其疲软，因主要贸易伙伴需求下降对其出口产生重大影响。欧洲决策者们没有选择本可扭转欧洲经济和欧股颓势的财政刺激。
5. 日本市场对进一步宽松刺激表现麻木。2014年三季度开始的衰退将贯穿2015年，尽管会有进一步的财政和货币刺激，以及推迟第二次上调销售税。以日元计价，日经225指数今年收平；以美元计价，日经225指数收跌。
6. 中国报告称，经济增长难以保“7%”，甚至为保“5%”和避免硬着陆需要推行更多财政和货币刺激。 中国还会承认，实现经济再平衡需要向消费端倾斜，远离通过向国企发放大量信贷和基建投资进行刺激。花在基建上的钱也是用于治理空气、水体和地面污染，而非道路和房屋建设。
7. 油价下跌终于影响到了伊朗。伊朗依赖出售原油抵消制裁带来的影响。由油价意外大跌导致的经济脆弱最终促使伊朗在核谈判中展示温和的态度。停止发展核武器的压力也来自伊朗人民，因为他们寻求更多的经济机遇。伊朗回撤核武项目的协议将在中东地区受到欢迎，世界股市将因之短暂上涨。
8.（上半年）布伦特油价跌至40美元。上半年持续低迷的油价将对俄罗斯产生重大影响。乌克兰和平协议将会签署，乌克兰东部获得实际上的自治区，但乌克兰其余地区的主权得以保全。因为经济面临诸多问题，普京试图重新赢得国际社会尊重，但俄罗斯人民最终向其“开火”。普京支持率大跌，并于今年年底辞职。下半年，WTI和布伦特油价均高于70美元，因为新兴市场需求持续增长。
9. 因油价大跌，2014年末垃圾债出现的大跌成为买入的良机。垃圾债和国债息差今年会降半，垃圾债成为表现最好的债券，因为美国经济持续增长且看不到衰退迹象。
10. 共和党决定做一些事儿。共和党控制参议院和国会，通过一系列立法。Keystone石油管道建设最终获批，税法也会小幅修正，甚至移民政策也会出现部分变化。他们还决心在2016年改善与西班牙裔美国人的关系，迫切期待入主白宫，让Jeb Bush当选总统。
Added Mr. Wien, “Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are ‘probable.’”
11。水變成2015年的中央環境問題，食碳引起的空氣污染。 而水短缺一直是美國西部一個潛在的問題，它成為了在印度和中國，其中大部分人口沒有安全的飲用水一致的基礎相當緊張的根源。
12。互聯網電子商務經營陷入困境。 建立酒店推立法者Airbnb變得付出，他們需要向客戶收取相同的稅金和服務費。 尤伯杯是要求地方當局，以證明它的驅動程序有商業保險，以保障乘客。 股票下跌影響大幅。
13。巴西提供了一個新興市場有利的驚喜。 總統迪爾瑪·羅塞夫放棄她的一些長期持有的社會主義思想和運動的中心。 她介紹了一些企業的政策和經濟好轉。 它幫助超過它是由石油價格的下跌受到傷害。 巴西成為新興市場的投資者最喜歡的一次。
14。我喜歡這一個，但我沒有超過50％的信念吧。 希拉里·克林頓決定不競選總統。 她擔心，傑布·布什會吸走一些拉美裔美國人，誰投大幅奧巴馬的票。 許多自由主義者都醒悟與克林頓，可能不會選她。 她希望成為第一位女總統，但她不希望失去。


2015.1.6---Byron Wien :10 Surprise Predictions For 2015
1.The Federal Reserve finally raises short-term interest rates, well before the middle of the year, encouraged by the improving employment data and strong Gross Domestic Product growth. The timing proves faulty, however, as the momentum of the economy has begun to flag and a short-term slowdown has started. The end of monetary accommodation and rising rates precipitate a correction in equities. Long-term Treasury rates stay where they started and the yield curve flattens.
2.Our luck runs out on cyber terrorism. Hackers invade the personal and corporate accounts of a major money center bank and the Federal Reserve orders the institution to suspend transactions for five business days while the accuracy of its balances is verified. Various government departments and agencies are mobilized to deal with the problem caused by the hackers having proved to be more skillful than our corporate cyber security efforts.
3.The year-end 2014 rally in United States equities continues as the market rises for a strong performance in 2015. A growing economy, fueled by housing and capital spending and favorable earnings, enables the Standard & Poor’s 500 to increase 15% during the year, outperforming equities in most major industrialized countries throughout the world.
4.Mario Draghi finally begins to expand the balance sheet of the European Central Bank aggressively by buying sovereign debt, mortgages and corporate bonds. In spite of this expansion, Europe falls back into a serious recession. Germany is particularly weak as reduced demand from various trading partners has a major impact on its exports. The European policy makers fail to embrace the one option, fiscal spending, that could turn the economy around, and European stocks decline. Politically, Europe moves dangerously toward the right.
5.Shock and awe no longer works in Japan. The recession which began in the third quarter of 2014 continues throughout 2015 in spite of further fiscal and monetary stimulus and the suspension of the second planned sales tax increase. The Nikkei 225 is flat for the year in yen and down in dollars.
6.China reports that it is no longer growing at 7% and that more fiscal and monetary stimulus is needed to grow at even 5% and to prevent a hard landing. It also acknowledges that it must rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from credit-based investing in state-owned enterprises and infrastructure. What money is spent on infrastructure is focused on air, water and ground pollution, not roads and housing. A lower rate of job creation leads to protests but they are contained without excessive violence.
7.The drop in the price of oil finally has an impact on Iran. The country was dependent on its sale of crude to offset the impact of sanctions. The economic weakness resulting from the unexpected decline in oil finally forces a conciliatory attitude on the part of its nuclear negotiators. Pressure to cease nuclear weapons development comes from the Iranian people as well, as they seek more economic opportunity. An agreement to roll back its weapons program is greeted positively throughout the region and world equity markets rally briefly on the news.
8.Brent slips into the $40s. The low price of crude oil, which continues throughout the first part of the year, has a major impact on Russia. A peace settlement with Ukraine is signed, giving Eastern Ukraine substantial autonomy but guaranteeing the sovereignty of the rest of the country. President Putin seems to be trying to win back the respect of the international community as the country reels from its economic problems, but the Russian citizenry finally turns on him. His approval rating plummets and he resigns by year-end. During the second half of the year, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude are both above $70, as emerging market demand continues to increase.
9.The year-end 2014 meltdown in the high yield market, as a result of the collapse in the price of oil, creates a huge buying opportunity. The spread between high yield and Treasurys is cut in half, and high yield becomes the best performer of the various asset classes as the U.S. economy continues to grow with no recession in sight.
10.The Republicans decide to position the party as the one that can get something done in Washington. They argue that President Obama was ineffective in his first six years, but when they got control of both the Senate and the House, legislation was passed. The Keystone pipeline finally is approved, as well as minor tax code revisions and even some changes in immigration policy. The Republicans are determined to strengthen their position with Hispanics in 2016. They want desperately to hold the nation’s highest office and they see Jeb Bush as a winner for them.
Added Mr. Wien, “Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are ‘probable.’”
Also rans:
11.Water becomes the central environmental issue of 2015, eclipsing carbon-caused air pollution. While a shortage of water has always been a potential problem in the Western United States, it becomes a source of considerable tension in India and China, where large parts of the population do not have safe drinking water on a consistent basis.
12.Internet commerce runs into trouble. Established hotels push legislators to make Airbnb pay the same taxes and fees that they are required to charge customers. Uber is asked by local authorities to prove that its drivers have commercial insurance to protect passengers. The stocks affected decline sharply.
13.Brazil provides an emerging market favorable surprise. President Dilma Rousseff abandons some of her long-held socialist ideas and moves to the center. She introduces a number of business-friendly policies and the economy improves. It is helped more than it is hurt by the drop in the oil price. Brazil becomes a favorite of emerging market investors once again.
14.I liked this one, but I didn’t have more than 50% conviction about it. Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President. She fears that Jeb Bush would siphon off some of the votes of Hispanics, who substantially voted for Obama. Many liberals are disenchanted with Clinton and may not vote for her. She wants to be the first woman President but she doesn’t want to lose.


2014.7.17---Byron Wien :新的工業革命=互聯網技術+生物技術
生物技術==在接下來的幾年裡，您會目睹許多用於癌症和心臟疾病的重磅產品通過批准。阿爾茨海默氏症和帕金森症已被證實很難對付,,在生物技術領域，新產品將延長人體壽命，減少侵入性手術，其價值又豈是等閑可以衡量的？這是非常令人興奮的，應該是每個投資者關注的焦點。
互聯網信息技術==主要的受益者將是谷歌、蘋果、Facebook、Salesforce.com、微軟、亞馬遜、LinkedIn和其他幾家企業，但Twitter並不在內，在我看來這隻是一家從推動變革的主要企業的嘴中掠食的公司。正是這些新公司的崛起，讓IBM成為過往神話。這些驅動因素正在更改製造、存儲和運輸的方式，各種形式的通信正在興起。
Byron Wien：歐洲擺脫其經濟困境的其中一個問題是，它在政治上能量有限。它擔心俄羅斯，希望對該國採取更嚴厲的製裁，但真的這樣做會對其經濟權益產生負面的影響。所以，它索性袖手旁觀俄羅斯對烏克蘭和附屬的克裡米亞採取激進行動。
Byron Wien :未來兩年，烏克蘭要想維持自身生存所需，將需要300億美元。要讓西方世界籌措這麼大筆資金來支持一個他們幾乎不太關心的一個國家，這是不可能的。但普京會出這筆錢，因為這關乎其直接利益。
Byron Wien：英國央行會不得不提高利率，以減緩樓市速度，對整個經濟產生抑製作用。倫敦的房地產熱潮主要得益於俄羅斯和中東的買家，這一點大家都知道。
Byron Wien：法國的François Hollande會重新當選,我確實發現歐洲在政治上有點右傾趨勢，但我不認為法國會選出一位極右派候選人。它基本上是一個社會主義國家，很可能會繼續如此
Byron Wien：如果德國經濟開始放緩,可能導致歐洲央行大手筆放寬貨幣政策，
Byron Wien：美國實際增長約2%。要實現3%的增長，需要另一波建設熱潮，而我並不認為這會很快來臨
Byron Wien：機器人技術的使用將提高工業企業的生產力，利潤空間會保持較高水平，但難以拉低失業率
Byron Wien：印尼基本上就是大宗商品，而非工業市場
Byron Wien：未來，只有創造力會得到回報，而且回報豐厚。加州是一個神奇的創意之地。相比而言，全球其他地區可謂表現平平。
Byron Wien：藝術市場是貧富不均問題的重點反映區。這是全球最不受管制的市場。因為財富稅的緣故，價格可能很快冒頂。
Byron Wien：在2012年和2013年之後，事實證明要在股市掙錢越來越難。
Byron Wien：緬甸將有大熱潮出現，儘管軍方仍然掌權。
Byron Wien：希拉里·柯林頓將贏得2016年大選。
Byron Wien的投資知識
(1)在優異表現的背後最主要的動力是在重要變更發生之前或剛發生之時即予以識別
(2)在發生重大事件時，投入大量金錢。專註大趨勢；不要過度分散。


2014.3.24---Byron Wien的14大教訓
1.全神貫注尋找一個能對您想影響的人產生影響的好主意。我從1986年開始編制的「十大令人驚訝事件」已成為我的一個「招牌」。世界各地的人們已經注意到它並且通過它來界定我的身份。看起來他們比較喜歡的「十大令人驚訝事件」的一點是，我記錄下我認為很可能發生的這些事件並在年底作出解釋並承擔相應責任，為此而將我自己置於也許被人詬病的境地。如果您想要獲得成功並活得長壽、刺激，那就始終讓您自己理智地處於風險之中。
2.人際關係網至上。在生活中，運氣發揮著極大的作用，要獲得好運，再沒有比盡可能認識更多的人更好的辦法了。建立您的人際關係網，向人們發送文章、書籍和電子郵件，向他們表達您對他們的看法。為主要出版物撰寫專欄文章和時事短評。組織討論小組，將有思想的朋友們聯合起來。
3.當您遇到新認識的人時，把他/她當作朋友來對待。假設他/她是一個成功人士，並將成為您生命中一股積極的力量。大多數人都在等著別人來證明自己的價值，有時候，您會失望，但如果您按照這條途徑走下去，您就能迅速擴大您的人際網。
4.勿忘閱讀。不要僅僅是因為對什麼感到好奇才去閱讀，應該主動積極地閱讀。在開始讀一本書或一篇文章之前，先形成一種觀點，看看作者是會證實還是會否定您的這種觀點。如果這樣做，您將會閱讀得更快，理解得更多。
5.足夠的睡眠。六十歲以前，每天七個小時就夠了，六十歲到七十歲之間，每天要八個小時，之後每天要九個小時，包括晚上的八個小時和一個小時的午後小憩。
6.與時俱進。嘗試將您的人生分成不同階段，這樣您就能避免耗盡生命。在您職業生涯的早期階段，跟數字打交道。之後，要嘗試發展出一些理念。在這個過程中，始終身處風險之中。
7.走南闖北。在走不動之前，儘量到處走走。每到一個地方，嘗試見見當地有趣的人，在您的一生中，與他們保持聯繫。再返當地時，去看看他們。
8.遇見新認識的人時，可以嘗試找出他們在十七歲之前發生過哪些成長經歷。我堅信，在人們青春期發生的一些重要事件，會對此後發生的一切產生影響。
9.說到慈善事業，我的做法是「雪中送炭」而不是「錦上添花」。音樂、戲劇和藝術博物館已經有許多富裕的支持者，提供了最佳的派對，能為您在社區的形象增輝。他們並不需要您。社會服務機構、醫院和教育機構能讓世界變得更美好，並幫助弱勢群體邁向夢想之途。
10.年輕人自然缺乏安全感，往往會過分誇張他們的成就。大多數人總不太能接受自己，直到40歲。到這個年齡，他們才能比較低調地看待自己的成就，並變成一個更好更可愛的人。儘量早點進入這個階段。
11.為您工作的人表現不錯之時，不妨花點時間，表揚鼓勵一下。大多數人往往太專注於下一個挑戰，而忘了感謝一下支持他們的人。這一點非常重要。表達謝意能激勵和鼓舞員工，並鼓勵他們提升工作表現。
12.當有人向您施恩不望報時，給他們手寫一封感謝信，而不是發封電子郵件了事。親手寫信能產生更好的效果，不會很快被忘掉。
13.在每年年初，想想有什麼方法能讓您比以前更好地開展您的工作。將它寫下來，到年底時，看看您曾為自己設定的出發點。
14.永不退休。如果您永遠工作，您就能長生不老。我知道，有很多生物學證據都反對這一理論，但並不妨礙我照此行事。


2014.1.6---Byron Wien :10 Surprise Predictions For 2014
1.We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 approaches a 20% total return by year end.
2.The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.
3.The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.
4.Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don’t matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.
5.China’s Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.
6.Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.
7.In spite of increased U.S. production the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.
8..The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.
9.The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.
10.The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished and younger people begin signing up. Obama's approval rating rises and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.


2013.7.7---Byron Wien 20條投資與生活規則
1. 集中精力尋找一個大的想法 ，這將使你想影響的人產生影響。 十大驚喜，這是我開始做於1986年，一直是定義產品。 人們在世界各地都意識到這一點，並確定了我吧。 他們似乎喜歡它的是，我把自己的風險通過這些事件，我相信有可能和保持自己在年底將負責記錄。 如果你想成功，長壽，刺激的生活，讓自己處於危險理智所有的時間。
2. 網絡強烈 。 運氣扮演著生活中很大的作用，也沒有更好的辦法來增加你的運氣比通過了解盡可能多的人越好。 通過發送文章，書籍和電子郵件的人，以顯示你正在考慮他們的培養您的網絡。 寫專欄文章和思想片斷為主要出版物。 組織討論小組，使您的體貼朋友在一起。
3.當你遇到新的人， 把那個人加為好友 。 假設他或她是一個勝利者，將成為你生活中的積極力量。 大多數人等待別人來證明自己的價值。 給他們從一開始就疑點利益。 有時候，你會感到失望，但你的網絡將擴大迅速，如果你走這條路。
4. 閱讀所有的時間 。 不只是這樣做，因為你好奇的東西，閱讀積極。 有一個觀點，你開始一本書或一篇文章，看看你的想法是確認或由作者駁斥前。 如果你這樣做，你會更快地閱讀和理解更多。
5， 保證充足的睡眠 。 七個小時會做，直到你60，八從60到70，此後9，其中可能包括在夜間8小時，一小時午睡。
6. 發展。 再想想自己的人生分階段這樣就可以避免燒損。 做搗弄在你的職業生涯的早期階段的數字。 稍後再試發展的概念。 留在整個過程中的風險。
7. 走南闖北 。 試圖讓你到處穿出來之前​​。 試圖以滿足在那裡你當地的旅行有趣的人，並與他們保持聯繫在你的一生。 看到他們當您返回到一個地方。
8.當遇見一個新的，試圖找出形成的經驗發生在他們的生活是什麼，他們17之前。 我相信，在大家的青年一些重要事件具有發生後的一切產生影響。
9.在慈善事業我的做法是設法減輕疼痛 ，而不是傳播歡樂。 音樂，戲劇和藝術博物館有許多富裕的支持者，提供最好的各方，並可以添加到你的社交光澤在一個社區。 他們並不需要你。 社會服務，醫院和教育機構可以使世界變得更美好，幫助弱勢群體做他們的方式對美國夢。
10.年輕的人天生缺乏安全感，往往會誇大自己的成就。 大多數人不成為舒適與他們是誰，直到他們在他們的40年代 。 到那個時候，他們可以淡化他們的成就，並成為一個更好的，更可愛的人 。 盡量到這一點，只要你能。
11.花時間給那些誰為你工作拍拍背 ，當他們做好工作。 大多數人都太專注於他們不感謝誰支持他們的人的下一個挑戰。 要做到這一點是很重要的。 它能夠激發和鼓舞人民，鼓勵他們在更高層次上進行。
12.當有人擴展了善待你寫他們手寫的便條，而不是電子郵件。 手寫筆記給人眼前一亮的感覺，並沒有很快被遺忘。
13.在每年年初想辦法，你可以做你的工作比你以往任何時候都做到了。 把它們寫下來，看看你已經設置了自己的時候一年就結束了。
14.困難的方式永遠是正確的方法，不要走捷徑，從漢普頓開車回家時除外。 捷徑可以解釋為草率，職業殺手。
15. 不要試圖比你的競爭對手更好，別出心裁 。 總有會有人比你聰明，但可能沒有人誰更富有想像力。
16.當尋求職業生涯，你出來上學或進行工作的變化， 始終把看起來像這將是最令人愉快的工作 。 如果它支付最，你是幸運的。 如果沒有，把它反正，我參加了一個嚴重的減薪採取的每一個我曾經擁有過的最好的兩個職位，他們都被證明是非常有益的經濟。
17. 有一個完美的工作在那裡的每一個人 。 大多數人從來沒有發現它。 繼續尋找。 人生的目標是成為一個快樂的人與合適的工作是必不可少的。
18.當你的孩子長大，或者如果你沒有孩子， 總能找到一個人年輕的導師 。 這是非常令人滿意的幫助，通過生活中的障礙，引導人，你會在多少，你將學習的過程中驚訝。
19. 每年試著做一些你從來沒有做過這完全是出於自己的安樂窩。 它可以跑馬拉松，參加自己感興趣的場外擊敗主題，將進行填充的人非常不同的聯營公司和朋友的你平時圓或旅行到單獨一個不起眼的目的地的會議。 這將增加自我發現的必要的過程。
20. 永遠不要退休 。 如果你的工作永遠可以長生不老。 我知道有對這一理論的生物學證據豐富，但我會用也無妨。


2013.1.2---Byron Wien :10 Surprise Predictions For 2013
1.Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.
2.Aprofit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.
3.Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.
4.In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.
5.In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.
6.The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.
7.Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.
8.Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.
9.The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world’s third largest economy.
10.The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.
Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten because either I do not believe they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.” Below are several “also rans” which did not make the Ten Surprises.
“Also Rans”
11.Having traded below 20 for most of 2012 the VIX Volatility Index surges 33% to 30, providing a bonanza for traders. The decline in the S&P 500 increases market volatility.
12.The Newtown, Connecticut, massacre finally convinces Congress to do something about gun control. As a first step they ban future civilian purchases of automatic weapons, including handguns, with clips of more than ten rounds and require more extensive background checks on all gun purchases. “It should not be easier to buy a gun than rent a car” becomes a slogan.
13.Frustrated by an inability to increase revenues through raising income taxes, Congress begins to consider different approaches. There is more talk of a value-added tax as well as a wealth tax, and these ideas appear to be slowly gathering momentum.
14.Congress decides that high-frequency and other computerized algorithmic-based trading practices are putting the individual investor at a disadvantage. A transaction fee designed to slow down frenetic activity and protect against “flash crashes” and glitches is imposed on intra-day trades.
15.The planet finds itself saturated with technology. Semiconductor companies, software providers, social media favorites and personal computer manufacturers all report disappointing earnings and provide discouraging guidance. They lead the overall market lower. Users finally agree the present state of the art is fast enough and connected enough, and that they have more “apps” than they know what to do with. Apple bucks the trend and trades above $700 as its products continue to enjoy enormous success abroad.


2012.1.4---Byron Wien :2012年十大預測
(1)歐洲雖將步入經濟衰退，但債務危機將逐漸得到緩解；
(2)美國經濟保持不溫不火的狀態；
(3)中國和印度經濟雖有所放緩，但仍將為2012世界經濟增長作出超過一半的貢獻；
(4)美國企業業績溫和增長，但無法超出市場預期；
(5)美國國債收益率上漲；
(6)美國股市將出現2位數的上漲；
(7)美國股市的表現將連續3年超過美國以外市場的表現；
(8)派息和回購將創下歷史新高；
(9)健保和能源板塊在漲幅上將超過公用事業和金融板塊；
(10)共和黨總統候選人將擊敗現任總統歐巴馬。


2009年9月--Byron R. Wien加入黑石作為高級顧問，同時公司及其在分析經濟，政治，市場和社會趨勢的客戶。
-----1986年Byron R. Wien任首席美國投資策略摩根士丹利。
==Blackstone is one of the world’s leading investment and advisory firms. We seek to create positive economic impact and long-term value for our investors, the companies we invest in, the companies we advise and the broader global economy. We do this through the commitment of our extraordinary people and flexible capital. Our asset management businesses include investment vehicles focused on private equity, real estate, hedge fund solutions, non-investment grade credit, secondary funds, and multi asset class exposures falling outside of other funds’ mandates. Blackstone also provides various financial advisory services, including financial and strategic advisory, restructuring and reorganization advisory and fund placement services.