Project Syndicate2016.3.7---CHANGYONG RHEE :在動盪時期的亞洲經濟增長

Project Syndicate2016.3.7---CHANGYONG RHEE :Asian Growth in Turbulent Times
Asian Growth in Turbulent Times
NEW DELHI – A new reality is emerging in Asia. In recent decades, many of Asia’s economies have boomed. The region today accounts for about 40% of the world’s GDP – up from 25% in 1990 – and contributes about two-thirds of global economic growth.
There’s more. Asia has made unprecedented strides in reducing poverty and improving broad development indicators. The poverty rate fell from 55% in 1990 to 21% in 2010, while education and health outcomes have improved significantly. Hundreds of millions of lives have been improved in the process. And, looking ahead, Asia is expected to continue to grow at an average annual rate of 5%, leading global economic expansion. But today, the region is facing challenging new economic conditions. With growth in advanced economies tepid, risk aversion increasing in global financial markets, and the commodity super-cycle coming to an end, the world economy is providing little impetus to Asian growth.
At the same time, China is moving toward a more sustainable growth model that implies slower expansion. Given the growing links between China and the rest of the world, particularly Asia, the spillover effects are significant. Indeed, China is now the top trading partner of most major regional economies, particularly in East Asia and ASEAN. New research by the International Monetary Fund, to be published in next month’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific, suggests that the median Asian country’s economic sensitivity to China’s GDP has doubled in the last couple of decades. So China’s slowdown means a slower pace of growth across Asia.
Asia’s achievements in recent decades attest to the hard work of the region’s people, as well as to the soundness of the policies that many Asian governments have adopted since the late 1990s, including improved monetary-policy and exchange-rate frameworks, increased international reserve buffers, and stronger financial sector regulation and supervision. Against this backdrop, the region attracted vast amounts of foreign direct investment.
As trade links expanded, a sophisticated network of integrated supply chains emerged, creating the conditions for Asia to become a manufacturing powerhouse and, increasingly, an exporter of services as well. More recently, thanks to strong policies and ample reserves, the region quickly recovered from the global financial crisis. Asia also benefited during these years from strong global tailwinds, including favorable external financing conditions and the rapid expansion of the Chinese economy.
Amid this new testing reality now dawning in Asia, we must not lose sight of the deep, and long term, structural challenges facing the region. Populations are rapidly aging and even declining in countries like Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand, dragging down potential growth and putting pressure on fiscal balances.
Income inequality is a further challenge. While inequality has remained stable or declined in Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, it is rising in many parts of the region, most notably in India and China (as well as other parts of East Asia). In many emerging markets and developing countries, widespread infrastructure gaps persist, notably in power and transport. And, elsewhere in the region – the small Pacific islands in particular – vulnerability to the effects of climate change is increasing.
This shifting landscape calls for bold action on several fronts. While the response will certainly need to be tailored to each country’s specific circumstances, some recommendations could be helpful for most countries: · Because inflation remains low across most of the region, monetary policy should remain supportive of growth in case downside risks materialize.
· Exchange-rate flexibility and targeted macroprudential policies should be part of the risk-management toolkit. · Countries need to deepen their financial systems to channel the large pool of domestic and regional savings toward financing their development needs; closing the region’s infrastructure gaps, for example, remains critical. · Structural reforms, aided by fiscal policy, should support the economic transitions and rebalancing, while boosting potential growth and alleviating poverty.
The good news is that Asia, as demonstrated by its strong performance in recent years, can meet these challenges and continue to build upon the significant achievements of the past two decades. It has the resources and the people; it has the buffers and resilience; and it has ample opportunities for further trade and financial integration.
To discuss these challenges, the government of India and the IMF are organizing the Advancing Asia conference in New Delhi on March 11-13, bringing together regional policymakers and thinkers. India, a bright spot among emerging markets in these difficult times – indeed, the world’s fastest growing major economy – is an auspicious place to hold this gathering.
Our mutual aim in convening with Asian policymakers is clear and critical, for Asia and for the global economy: to ensure that growth in Asia continues to be robust, sustainable, and inclusive, so that the region remains a powerful locomotive for global growth.

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Project Syndicate2016.3.7---CHANGYONG RHEE :在動盪時期的亞洲經濟增長
新德里 - 一种新的现实出现在亚洲。近几十年来，许多亚洲经济的轰炸。该地区目前占世界国内生产总值的约40％ - 从25％，1990年 - 并有助于全球经济增长的三分之二。
还有更多。亚洲在减少贫困和改善广阔的发展指标取得了前所未有的进展。贫困率从55％于1990年，2010年下降到21％，而教育和健康结果有显著改善。数百万人的生命都在这个过程中得到了改进。而且，展望未来，预计亚洲将继续以5％的年均速度增长，从而导致全球经济扩张。 但今天，该地区正面临着充满挑战的新的经济条件。随着发达经济体的增长不温不火，避险情绪在全球金融市场的增加，大宗商品超级周期即将结束，世界经济对亚洲经济增长提供动力不大。
与此同时，中国正朝着暗示慢扩张更可持续的增长模式前进。鉴于中国和世界其他国家，特别是亚洲之间日益密切的联系，溢出效应是显著。事实上，中国现在是最重要的区域经济的第一大贸易伙伴，特别是东亚和东盟。由国际货币基金组织（IMF），新的研究在下个月的地区经济展望亚洲和太平洋公布，表明中位数亚洲国家对中国的GDP经济的敏感性，在过去几十年中翻了一番。因此，中国经济放缓意味着整个亚洲的增长速度较慢。
亚洲近几十年来取得的成就证明了该地区的人民，辛勤工作，以及自上世纪90年代末，许多亚洲国家的政府已经通过了包括提高货币政策和汇率框架政策的稳健性，增加国际储备缓冲器，做强金融业的监管和监督。在此背景下，该地区吸引了大量的外国直接投资。
由于贸易环节扩展，集成供应链的复杂的网络出现，创造了条件，为亚洲成为一个制造业大国，并越来越多，服务的出口国也是如此。最近，得益于强有力的政策和充足的储备，该地区迅速从全球金融危机中恢复过来。亚洲也是在这些年从全球强劲的顺风，包括有利的外部融资环境和中国经济的迅速扩张中受益。
面对这一新的测试现实曙光，现在在亚洲，我们绝不能忽视的深，和长期的，该地区面临的结构性挑战。人口正在迅速老龄化，甚至像日本，韩国，新加坡，泰国等国家的下降，拖累了增长潜力，并施加压力，财政收支。
收入不平等是进一步的挑战。虽然差距一直保持稳定，或在马来西亚，泰国和菲律宾的下降，但呈上升趋势在该地区的许多地方，特别是在印度和中国（以及东亚其他地区）。在许多新兴市场国家和发展中国家，广泛的基础设施的差距依然存在，特别是在电力和运输。而且，在亚洲其他地区 - 尤其是小太平洋岛屿 - 易受气候变化的影响越来越大。
这种转变的景观要求在几个方面采取大胆行动。虽然响应将肯定需要进行调整以适应每个国家的具体情况，提出了一些建议可能是大多数国家有所帮助：
·因为整个通胀大部分地区依然很低，货币政策应以防下行风险兑现继续支持的增长。
·汇率灵活性和有针对性的宏观审慎政策应是风险管理工具包的一部分。
·各国需要深化其金融系统通道的国内和地区性储蓄对他们的发展需要资金的大池;关闭地区的基础设施的差距，例如，仍然至关重要。 ·结构性改革，通过财政政策的帮助下，应支持经济转型和再平衡，同时提高潜在增长和减贫。
好消息是，亚洲，就证明了其在近几年强劲的性能，能够应对这些挑战，并继续建立在过去二十年的成就显著。它有足够的资源和人民的;它具有缓冲和应变能力;它有进一步的贸易和金融一体化充足的机会。
要讨论这些挑战，印度和国际货币基金组织的政府正在组织于3月11-13日在新德里的亚洲前进会议，汇集了区域决策者和思想家。印度，在这些困难时期的新兴市场中的一个亮点 - 实际上，是世界上增长最快的主要经济体 - 是一个吉祥的地方举行这个聚会。
我们与亚洲的决策者召集双方的目标是明确的，关键的，亚洲和全球经济：确保在亚洲的增长仍然强劲，可持续，包容，使该地区仍是全球经济增长的强大火车头。



资料来源 :
Project Syndicate2016.3.7---CHANGYONG RHEE :Asian Growth in Turbulent Times
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/asia-economic-growth-despite-global-turbulence-by-changyong-rhee-2016-03