2015.12.17Fed決議調高聯邦基金利率一碼聲明全文

2015.12.17---Fed決議調高聯邦基金利率一碼聲明全文
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.
聯邦公開市場操作委員會（FOMC）10月開會後收到的資訊顯示，經濟景氣這幾個月溫和擴張。家庭支出和企業固定投資近幾個月來繼續以穩健的速度增加，房市進一步改善；不過，淨出口依然疲軟。最近多項勞動市場指標顯示進一步好轉，包括就業持續好轉，失業率下降，也確認勞力資源利用率偏低的情況自今年初以來已減少。通膨持續低於本委員會2%的長期目標，部分反映能源價格以及非能源進口價格下跌的因素。市場面的通膨補償指標仍然偏低；統計調查呈現的長期通膨預期微降。
委員會為履行法定職責，尋求促進就業最大化與物價穩定。委員會目前預期，在貨貨政策逐步調整下，經濟景氣會持續以溫和的步調擴張，勞動市場指標會持續增強。整體來看，考量國內外發展，委員會預期，經濟景氣與勞動市場兩者展望面臨的風險兩相平衡。隨著能源和進口物價下跌暫時性影響消退、勞動市場進一步改善，通膨預料中期內會逐步升向2%。委員會將繼續密切觀察通膨發展。
委員會判定今年勞動市場大有起色，通膨中期有合理信心可達成2%的目標。考量經濟前景，並認定是採取政策行動來影響未來經濟結果的時候，委員會決定把聯邦資金利率調升至1/4至1/2%。升息後的貨幣政策的立場維持寬鬆，可因此支持勞動市場狀況改善，並讓通膨回到2%。
在決定未來聯邦資金利率調整的時機和規模時，委員會將評估已實現和預期中的經濟形勢朝充分就業以及通膨2%目標發展的情況。這項評估會把眾多的資訊納入考量，包括勞動市場情況的指標、通膨壓力與通膨預期的指標，以及金融與國際發展的指數。由於當前通膨低於2%，委員會將密切關注向通膨目標的實際和預期進展。委員會預期，經濟形勢演變有理由僅以漸進步調上調聯邦基金利率；聯邦基金利率可能在一段時間內繼續低於預期中的長期水平。不過，聯邦基金利率的實際路徑將取決於未來數據所顯示出的經濟前景。
委員會將維持現行政策，把持有的機構債券與機構抵押擔保證券（MBS）到期的本金，再投資到機構MBS，並在標售時展延到期公債。委員會預期會持續這麼做直到聯邦資金利率正常化達到正常化的水平。此政策藉委員會所持長期證券維持在可觀水平，應有助於保持寬鬆的金融狀況。
FOMC這次貨幣政策行動的投票成員為：主席葉倫、副主席杜雷、布蘭納德、伊凡思、費雪、賴克、洛克哈德、鮑爾、塔魯羅，以及威廉斯。