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Newsy2011.6.13---Roubini: 2013年'完美风暴'威胁全球经济
Roubini: 'Perfect Storm' Threatens Global Economy
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Debt in the euro zone. A slowing Chinese economy. U.S. fiscal troubles. All ingredients of a perfect storm that could threaten the global economy.
That is, according to Nouriel Roubini, the renowned economist who predicted the U.S. housing meltdown in 2008.
“There are significant clouds on the global economy. This might not just be a soft patch. There’s evidence of weakness of growth in the U.S., the Euro zone, the U.K., in Japan, even in China...and we’re now running out of policy bullets in terms of countering this weakness, on monitoring the fiscal side. So, this is a dangerous time for the global economy and for financial markets.” (CNBC)
Roubini predicts China’s economic reliance on fixed investments will be a huge factor. Business Insider reports...
“One of the big threats Roubini believes the world is facing is a hard landing in China. He sees the country's non-performing loan problem expanding, if it does not quickly reshape its economy around domestic demand.”
But Bloomberg points out that Roubini doesn’t have a perfect record.
“Some of his other predictions haven’t panned out, including his call on July 4, 2010, for ‘market surprises on the downside’ in ensuing months and a weakening in economic growth. The MSCI World Index rallied 23 percent in the second half of last year.”
The NYU professor also says economic slowdown may prompt investors to turn to the dollar as a safe haven, leading to an outflow of capital from emerging markets.
But an economic analyst for CNBC disagrees.
“We are in a somewhat different world than what we used to be prior to the subprime crisis. It’s been a crisis where global growth has really been driven by China and Asia and emerging markets, and in that environment, I wouldn’t really see this flow from emerging markets to mature markets when quantitative easing stops.”
According to Bloomberg, the MSCI AC World Index fell 4.7 percent this month.
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Transcript by Newsy
鲁比尼：'完美风暴'威胁全球经济
你看从Newsy多源商业新闻分析。
在欧元区债务。一个中国的经济放缓。美国的财政困难。一个完美风暴的所有成分，可能威胁到全球经济。
也就是说，根据努里尔鲁比尼，著名经济学家预测谁在2008年美国房地产崩溃。
“有对全球经济产生重大的云彩。这可能不只是一个疲软。还有的在美国，欧元区，英国，日本，增长疲软的证据，甚至在中国...我们现在正在运行的政策在打击子弹出在财政方面的监测这一弱点，术语。所以，这是对全球经济和金融市场的危险的时候。“（CNBC电视频道）
鲁比尼预计，中国的经济依赖于固定投资将是一个巨大的因素。商业内幕报告...
“的鲁比尼认为，世界正面临着很大的威胁之一是在中国经济硬着陆。他认为该国的不良贷款问题扩大，如果不迅速重塑左右的国内需求的经济。“
但是，彭博鲁比尼指出，没有一个完美的纪录。
“他的其它预言有些人未能成功了，其中包括他在2010年7月4日呼吁，在随后的几个月，并在经济增长放缓的'市场上的不利惊喜'。摩根士丹利世界指数上扬在去年下半年的百分之二十三。“
纽约大学教授还表示，经济放缓可能促使投资者转向作为避风港的美元，从而导致资本从新兴市场流出。
但经济分析师CNBC的一个不同意。
“我们正处在一个比我们以前是次贷危机之前有所不同的世界。这是一个在全球经济增长，确实是由中国和亚洲新兴市场的推动危机，在这种环境下，我不想看到这个新兴市场流向成熟市场量化宽松时停止。“
根据彭博，摩根士丹利世界指数下跌了百分之4.7本月。
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